(中央社记者钟荣峰台北7日电)资策会MIC预估，今年台湾半导体产值年成长率约负10%，明年全球半导体市场呈现缓步成长步调。

资讯工业策进会产业情报研究所(MIC)今举办「前瞻2012高科技产业十大趋势」记者会，资策会MIC产业顾问兼副主任洪春晖表示，今年全球半导体市场动能趋缓，3C终端应用需求疲弱是主因，预估明年全球半导体市场仍将维持缓步的成长步调。

洪春晖表示，由于3C终端应用需求疲弱，今年全球半导体市场规模约3128.37亿美元，较去年3003.15亿美元仅成长4.2%，到年底前，实际市场规模和年成长率数字还会再向下调整。

洪春晖预估到2016年，全球半导体市场恐将长期维持缓步成长步调，预估年成长率都维持在5%以下。

另一方面，由于上半年IC设计业成长动能不足，以及下半年动态随机存取记忆体(DRAM)减产影响，洪春晖预估今年台湾半导体产值将出现负成长，整体台湾半导体产值年成长率为负10%。

资策会MIC预估，今年台湾IC封测产值为新台币3452亿元，年减1.85%；IC制造晶圆代工产值为5349亿元，年减1.34%。 IC制造记忆体产值为1822亿元，年减34.67%；IC​​设计产值为3984亿元，年减10.1%。

不过洪春晖指出，排除记忆体产业后，明年台湾半导体次领域产业发展仍将朝正面发展。 

WSTS drops 2012 chip market growth to 2.6%

Peter Clarke

11/29/2011 7:18 AM EST

LONDON – The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization has lowered its prediction for the 2012 global chip market to 2.6 percent annual growth but raised its view of 2013 to 5.8 percent annual growth. The previous 2012 forecast from WSTS was for 7.6 percent growth.

WSTS now expects the worldwide semiconductor market to grow by just 1.3 percent in 2011 to $302 billion – in line with other forecasters – followed by 2.6 percent growth to $310 billion in 2012 and 5.8 percent growth in 2013 to take the chip market to $328 billion.

EE Times analysis puts the likely outcome for chip market growth in 2011 at between 0 and 2 percent.

The autumn 2011 WSTS forecast figures contrast with the more bullish forecast of 5.4 percent for 2011, 7.6 percent for 2012 and 5.4 percent for 2013 that WSTS made in its spring forecast published in June 2011.

As a result WSTS now thinks the 2013 global chip market will be 8 percent smaller than it was previously predicting; $328 billion versus $356.6 billion.

"In 2011, the semiconductor industry had to weather the slowdown of world economies from financial turmoil due to European debt concerns, clear declines of industrial and consumer confidence, as well as the supply chain disruptions by the earthquake disaster in Japan and recent flooding in Thailand," said WSTS in a statement.

WSTS added that in 2011 an oversupply in DRAM has prompted a decline in memory revenue but this was partially offset by "healthy growth" in the microcontroller, sensors and discrete semiconductor sectors.

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